คงจะ

Probably

Level 3

Use คงจะ before the predicate to present something as probable. It does not specify a fixed percentage of certainty.

How It Works

Expressing Probability With คงจะ
Use คงจะ before the predicate to present something as probable. The four examples concern forgetting an appointment, already reaching home, a future missed bus, and someone’s present well-being. The form itself does not assign a numerical probability or require one particular kind of evidence.

1. Position and Time
In เขาคงจะลืมนัดของเรา, คงจะ precedes ลืม. In คงจะสบายดีนะ, it precedes the state สบายดี. Although the form contains จะ, คงจะ is not by itself a future-tense guarantee. ป่านนี้ and แล้ว help give the already-home example its relevant time and completion reading. The missed-bus example describes a future possibility.

2. Compare Other Modals
อาจจะ can present a possibility; คงจะ presents something as probable. Neither word establishes a fixed percentage. น่าจะ can express likelihood or a suggestion according to context, so do not distinguish all these forms by a rigid evidence-versus-norm rule.

3. Prediction or Advice?
คุณคงจะไปหาหมอ predicts that the listener will probably visit a doctor. For the exercise requesting advice, คุณควรจะไปหาหมอ gives the requested “should” reading. The prediction is a grammatical sentence with a different purpose, not an invalid way to speak about a doctor.

4. Negating the Predicted Action
For the requested “probably will not go” pattern, use คงจะไม่ไป: probability followed by the negated action ไม่ไป. The comparison teaches that intended scope rather than every possible use of a negative with every modal.

5. คง
คง also has a probability use, as in เขาคงจะมา and the shorter คง in ถ้าเขามา กระผมก็คงไม่พูด. This does not make one form universally more complete, more casual, or a fixed amount more certain.

Examples (4)

  1. เขาคงจะลืมนัดของเรา

    He has probably forgotten our appointment.

    Word by Word: He [probably] forget appointment of us

    In a context where he has not shown up, this can present forgetting the appointment as a probable explanation; that situation is a context, not stated by this sentence alone.

  2. ป่านนี้เขาคงจะถึงบ้านแล้ว

    By now, he has likely reached home already.

    Word by Word: By this time he [probably] reach home already

    Shows that 'คงจะ' can refer to a completed action in the past/present when combined with แล้ว.

  3. ถ้าไม่รีบไป เราคงจะตกรถ

    If we don't hurry, we'll probably miss the bus.

    Word by Word: If not hurry go, we [probably] miss vehicle

    This predicts a probable consequence of not hurrying; it does not assert that the bus has already been missed.

  4. เขาสบายดีไหม? คงจะสบายดีนะ

    Is he doing well? [He] is probably doing fine.

    Word by Word: He comfortable well question? [Probably] comfortable well [particle]

    คงจะ precedes the state สบายดี. The subject in the reply is understood from the preceding question; the bracketed subject in the translation makes that inference explicit.

Common Mistakes

  • Not placing คงจะ before ไป in the requested prediction.

    เขาไปคงจะ
    เขาคงจะไป

    The requested prediction is เขาคงจะไป, with คงจะ before the action ไป; เขาไปคงจะ does not give this requested complete pattern.

  • Giving a prediction instead of the requested advice.

    คุณคงจะไปหาหมอ
    คุณควรจะไปหาหมอ

    The exercise requests advice with ควร: คุณควรจะไปหาหมอ. คุณคงจะไปหาหมอ is a grammatical prediction instead. น่าจะ can also have a suggestion reading in context.

  • Not using the requested probably-not-go scope.

    ไม่คงจะไป
    คงจะไม่ไป

    For the requested “probably will not go” reading, place ไม่ inside the action following คงจะ: คงจะไม่ไป. The exercise compares this specific intended scope.

How It Connects

Tap a pattern to see what it builds on and what it leads to.

คงจะLevel 3Probably

Learn This First

To understand 'คงจะ' (probably), you first need to be familiar with the future marker 'จะ', as 'คงจะ' functions as a modal auxiliary placed before the verb. It is also helpful to understand other probability markers like 'อาจจะ' to distinguish between 'might' and the more confident 'probably'.

Learn Next

Patterns that build on this one.

Words in This Pattern

คงจะคงจะคงคง