อาจจะ / คงจะ / น่าจะ

Comparing Modal Expressions

Level 3

The examples use อาจจะ for a possibility, คงจะ for probability, and น่าจะ for an expectation. Read the full utterance; these are not fixed confidence percentages.

How It Works

Comparing อาจจะ, คงจะ, and น่าจะ
These expressions occur before the predicate in the examples. อาจจะ presents rain or nonarrival as a possibility; คงจะ presents forgetting as probable; น่าจะ presents an expected arrival. Their meanings are not a fixed numerical scale or a rule assigning intuition to one word and external evidence to another.

1. Read Each Example
พรุ่งนี้ฝนอาจจะตก says it might rain tomorrow. It does not assign a fifty-percent chance or state what evidence the speaker has. เขาคงจะลืมนัด says he probably forgot the appointment; it does not state that he is generally forgetful. ป่านนี้เขาน่าจะถึงบ้านแล้ว presents an expectation that he has reached home by now; the time-and-distance explanation would be a possible context, not words in the sentence itself.

2. Likelihood and Advice
น่าจะ can also give a suggestion or express what should be done. ควร can give advice or express an expectation. In the basketball exercise, the specifically requested likelihood reading is เขาสูงมาก เขาน่าจะเล่นบาสเกตบอล. The ควรจะ alternative can recommend playing basketball; it is not universally ungrammatical and height alone does not prove that the person plays.

3. Negative Scope
In เขาอาจจะไม่มา, the possible event is not coming. In เขาไม่น่าจะมา, the coming is presented as unlikely. For the exercise requesting that second form, place ไม่ before น่าจะ. เขาน่าจะไม่มา can instead present nonarrival as expected or probable; it is a meaningful alternative, not a universally invalid phrase.

4. Keep the Construction Distinct
All three displayed forms contain จะ, but the complete expressions can concern more than future time. อาจ and คง also have modal uses. Learn น่าจะ as the displayed modal construction and distinguish it from descriptive น่า + Verb forms such as น่ารัก (adorable). That comparison does not declare every bare น่า incapable of an auxiliary reading.

Examples (5)

  1. พรุ่งนี้ฝนอาจจะตก

    It might rain tomorrow.

    Word by Word: tomorrow rain might fall

    อาจจะ presents tomorrow’s rain as a possibility; it states neither a numerical probability nor the speaker’s evidence.

  2. เขาคงจะลืมนัด

    He probably forgot the appointment.

    Word by Word: he probably forget appointment

    คงจะ presents forgetting the appointment as probable. The sentence does not state why the speaker thinks so.

  3. ป่านนี้เขาน่าจะถึงบ้านแล้ว

    By now, he should have arrived home.

    Word by Word: by now he [expected] reach home already

    น่าจะ presents an expected arrival by now, with แล้ว indicating the already-completed reading. Time and distance could explain the expectation in context, but are not stated here.

  4. เขาอาจจะไม่มา

    He might not come.

    Word by Word: he might not come

    Here ไม่ follows อาจจะ: the possible event is not coming.

  5. เขาไม่น่าจะมา

    He is unlikely to come.

    Word by Word: he not [likely] come

    Here ไม่ precedes น่าจะ, presenting coming as unlikely. Compare this with a probable negative event in น่าจะไม่มา.

Common Mistakes

  • Not using the requested likelihood reading in the basketball example.

    เขาสูงมาก เขาควรจะเล่นบาสเกตบอล
    เขาสูงมาก เขาน่าจะเล่นบาสเกตบอล

    The task requests a likelihood reading with น่าจะ in เขาสูงมาก เขาน่าจะเล่นบาสเกตบอล. The ควรจะ version can recommend playing basketball instead. Both can be grammatical; height alone does not establish that the person plays.

  • Not using the specifically requested ไม่น่าจะ order.

    เขาน่าจะไม่มา
    เขาไม่น่าจะมา

    For the requested “unlikely to come” form, use เขาไม่น่าจะมา. เขาน่าจะไม่มา can express expected or probable nonarrival; it is not universally ungrammatical. This exercise compares the specified form, not a measured native-speaker preference.

How It Connects

Tap a pattern to see what it builds on and what it leads to.

อาจจะ / คงจะ / น่าจะLevel 3Comparing Modal Expressions

Learn This First

This comparison helps you understand the differences between อาจจะ and คงจะ and น่าจะ. Study each pattern individually first.

Words in This Pattern

อาจจะอาจจะคงจะคงจะน่าจะ