Future of Probability
The future tense isn't just for the future! You can use it to say "probably," "I wonder," or "must be" about something happening right now.
How It Works
While the simple future tense is primarily used to talk about actions that will happen in the future, it has a very common secondary use: expressing probability or conjecture about the present.
Instead of saying "Probablemente son las cinco" (It's probably five o'clock), a native speaker is very likely to just say "Serán las cinco." The future tense conjugation itself implies the uncertainty.
This is used in both statements and questions:
- Statements: To make a guess. "No contesta el teléfono. Estará ocupado." (He's not answering the phone. He must be busy.)
- Questions: To express wonder. "¿Dónde estarán mis llaves?" (I wonder where my keys are? / Where could my keys be?)
This structure can be used with any verb, including those with irregular future stems. The same irregular stems apply.
Key takeaway: If someone uses the future tense but the context is clearly about the present, they are making a guess.
Examples (5)
- ¿Qué hora será?
I wonder what time it is? / What time could it be?
Word by Word: What time will it be?
Instead of asking what time it is (¿Qué hora es?), the speaker uses the future tense to express a guess or wonder about the current time.
- Mi madre estará en la cocina.
My mom is probably in the kitchen.
Word by Word: My mom will be in the kitchen.
This is a conjecture about the mother's current location.
- ¿Quién llamará a esta hora?
Who could be calling at this hour?
Word by Word: Who will call at this hour?
The speaker is wondering about the identity of the person calling right now.
- Tendrán unos cuarenta años.
They must be about forty years old.
Word by Word: They will have about forty years.
This uses the irregular future stem of 'tener' (tendr-) to guess someone's current age.
- No sé por qué está triste. Tendrá sus razones.
I don't know why he's sad. He must have his reasons.
Word by Word: I don't know why he is sad. He will have his reasons.
A guess about the cause of a current emotional state.
Common Mistakes
Using 'ser' for location instead of 'estar'.
¿Dónde serán mis gafas?¿Dónde estarán mis gafas?The fundamental rules of ser vs estar still apply. Even when guessing, 'estar' is used for location.
Using the future of probability for something you know.
Different MeaningEstoy mirando a Juan: estará en la oficina ahora mismo.Estoy mirando a Juan: está en la oficina ahora mismo.The future of probability is a guess about the present: Estará en la oficina means he is probably in the office. When you can see or know the fact, use the present: está.
How It Connects
Related Patterns
- diré/haré/podré/pondré/querré/sabré/saldré/tendré/vendréIrregular Future Stems
To use the future for probability, you need to know the future tense conjugations, including the irregular stems. The same irregulars (e.g., 'tener' -> 'tendr-', 'hacer' -> 'har-') are used in this construction.
Level 3 - Past Probability Conditional
This is the past-tense equivalent. While the future tense expresses probability about the present ("He's probably at home" -> "Estará en casa"), the conditional expresses probability about the past ("He was probably at home" -> "Estaría en casa").
Level 6 - es posible que + SubjunctiveSubjunctive with Possibility
This is another way to express possibility. "Es posible que esté en casa" means "It's possible that he's at home." The future of probability ("Estará en casa") is often a more concise and common way to express a simple guess in conversation.
Level 3 - ser / estarSer vs. Estar Basics
The basic rules distinguishing 'ser' and 'estar' are still essential when using the future of probability. You must choose the correct verb based on what you are guessing (e.g., 'estar' for location, 'ser' for time).
Level 1
Learn Next
Patterns that build on this one.
Practice Future of Probability in Bubblegum
Poppy, your AI tutor, writes Spanish lessons at your level. Tap any grammar point in a lesson to see its full explanation.
